Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
