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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.