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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.